I was shocked when my Mom called yesterday (Friday) asked me what to do with SIA that she bough on Wednesday (14 Nov 07). I was shock because I repeatly told her not to buy anything this week. Yet she still get in and buy 3 lot of SIA...sigh
She said she though that the market is rebounding when the market moved up on Wednesday and she has been monitoring SIA and felt it is “Very Cheap” now.
One common misconcept is, people like to treat share price like common goods that we buy on a daily basis. Compare share price with it historical or recent price and conclude that it is cheap or expensive. But the problem is the demand and supply of share flutuate much faster comparing to physical item. Added with other dimension of factors such as corperate performance, perceptions etc, these make share price very dynamic.
Another problem with my Mom is, like most people she is lack of information. In this information age if you are lack of information you are severely disadvantage. People without information will alway track a few stock only. And because of the lack of choice they usually trade in a “lack mentality” or what we better know as “kiasu & kiasee”. This mentallity will also leads to rushing in too early or chase a stock that has ran up too high.
One of thing that I am impressed of T3B is you will never run short of idea to trade. it uses technologies to give us an edge over others. With the click of a button I can scan the whole market for good shares. So far I have yet to find a day that I could not scan out any stock. And we are just talking about SGX. In this Internet age that we can trade foreign market, I can only said the choice is abundance.
Coming back to what I have told my Mom, STI is still in a down trend, it might moved further downward. but the risk level is very near the bottom and considerably lower. Looks like the rebound is near. And since you already get in and if your lost is not more than 8% hold on to it. But if it go beyond that sold it off and cut loss. Get in again when the up trend is more certain.
Friday, November 16, 2007
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Stay neutral
I can't believe it, I was suppose to make some shorting this week but ended up too busy to make any decision. Unlike Philip's Protrader, POEMS still do not have stop limit feature in CFD. And also no order entry off trading hours. Hope they can come out with this features sooner. Then I will be able to make purchasing decision before the market starts and not let trading affect my work or vice versa.
Anyway, I am not complaining, I am still very very glad that I am not holding any long counter at this period of severe diarrhoea.
Looking at the STI chart, it is still in a down trend. A friend of mine was using his technical knowledge and says that STI should hit 3350 level, meaning there is another 120 pts to drop. :O
But in T3B, the teaching is, we don't guess the market. All we do is to identify the early signal and then ride the trend. We are alway in a neutral position. No emotion. Which ever direction the tide move, we will follow.
Until now, most counter is still downtrending. Many stock sure looks attractive. But I won't enter the market now. Not shorting nor long. The market could rest for a few days (Side way) then another trend is declare. So I will wait and see.
Oh, I have received quite a few pple asking me to diagnose their counter. I have replied some but not all due to busy work schedule. Sorry if I didn't reply you. :)
Anyway, I am not complaining, I am still very very glad that I am not holding any long counter at this period of severe diarrhoea.
Looking at the STI chart, it is still in a down trend. A friend of mine was using his technical knowledge and says that STI should hit 3350 level, meaning there is another 120 pts to drop. :O
But in T3B, the teaching is, we don't guess the market. All we do is to identify the early signal and then ride the trend. We are alway in a neutral position. No emotion. Which ever direction the tide move, we will follow.
Until now, most counter is still downtrending. Many stock sure looks attractive. But I won't enter the market now. Not shorting nor long. The market could rest for a few days (Side way) then another trend is declare. So I will wait and see.
Oh, I have received quite a few pple asking me to diagnose their counter. I have replied some but not all due to busy work schedule. Sorry if I didn't reply you. :)
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
STI Action
As what the T3B chart has shown STI is still in correction. The current support is at 3630. But I seriously doin't think it is going to hold.
Will certainly go for short now. Looking at the scanner many good shorting counter is appearing.
Drown by the mighty river (Yangzijian)
Calvin: “bro, u bought Yangzijiang right?”
Me: “Yah, but sold off about 2 weeks ago. Make a little loss lah”
Calvin: “Wah you heng ah....me kenna man”
Me: “How many lot u buy?”
Calvin: “Me average down and now holding about 10 lot lah. Siong ha”
Me: “U WHAT!!? Wah lau u Jia lek lah, I though u go for preview and Keane say can not play average down, sure die one”
Calvin: “Kenasai, i though this one component stock can play mah. Bro u T3B expert, what to do now?”
Me: “It is still down trend. But I can't tell u what to do, wait suddenly it shoot up then u will blame me. What I can say is if it go down further than 2.2 u better give up and run”
Calvin: “Si bei siong leh, this time Oh Bak Kark liao”
Me: “Yah lah, people already tell you and you still don't listen”
Calvin: “Yah lah never kenna, never believe one. Eh...When is the next course?”
This is probably the fifth call that I've received this week asking for advise. Like what Keane said, if you don't have the good system you will learn from the rest and die like the rest. The big fish are there preying at you. And ironically many of these worldly wisdom will only make you fall deeper into their trap.
I bough Yangzijiang at $2.68 because my friend told me his broker's tip. It was also during that few day that the paper was blasting about china play. Added with one big securities house recomending a strong buy and set target price at $4.00. So I though it was a good play dispite T3B chart showing high risk. But one consolation is I told myself I would at least follow T3B's exit point.
Needless to say, less than a week it hit the exit point and I was forced out with some losses. Looking back now I would say it is a blessing in disguise. Today I am out and I can anytime buy it back at 20% discount. But do I want to go in now when it look so "CHEAP" now? Surely not, I am going to be smart and follow the rules. Until the entry signal show again, I will not make any move.
Looking at Calvin's strategy, his averaging down only give him the most 5% discount. And the worst thing is, he is now on huge paper loss and under tremendous stress. His stress will go further if the shares price goes further down. Looking at the chart it is a very likely situation.
Calvin..I pray for you.
Me: “Yah, but sold off about 2 weeks ago. Make a little loss lah”
Calvin: “Wah you heng ah....me kenna man”
Me: “How many lot u buy?”
Calvin: “Me average down and now holding about 10 lot lah. Siong ha”
Me: “U WHAT!!? Wah lau u Jia lek lah, I though u go for preview and Keane say can not play average down, sure die one”
Calvin: “Kenasai, i though this one component stock can play mah. Bro u T3B expert, what to do now?”
Me: “It is still down trend. But I can't tell u what to do, wait suddenly it shoot up then u will blame me. What I can say is if it go down further than 2.2 u better give up and run”
Calvin: “Si bei siong leh, this time Oh Bak Kark liao”
Me: “Yah lah, people already tell you and you still don't listen”
Calvin: “Yah lah never kenna, never believe one. Eh...When is the next course?”
This is probably the fifth call that I've received this week asking for advise. Like what Keane said, if you don't have the good system you will learn from the rest and die like the rest. The big fish are there preying at you. And ironically many of these worldly wisdom will only make you fall deeper into their trap.
I bough Yangzijiang at $2.68 because my friend told me his broker's tip. It was also during that few day that the paper was blasting about china play. Added with one big securities house recomending a strong buy and set target price at $4.00. So I though it was a good play dispite T3B chart showing high risk. But one consolation is I told myself I would at least follow T3B's exit point.
Needless to say, less than a week it hit the exit point and I was forced out with some losses. Looking back now I would say it is a blessing in disguise. Today I am out and I can anytime buy it back at 20% discount. But do I want to go in now when it look so "CHEAP" now? Surely not, I am going to be smart and follow the rules. Until the entry signal show again, I will not make any move.
Looking at Calvin's strategy, his averaging down only give him the most 5% discount. And the worst thing is, he is now on huge paper loss and under tremendous stress. His stress will go further if the shares price goes further down. Looking at the chart it is a very likely situation.
Calvin..I pray for you.
Saturday, November 3, 2007
Trust News...Can you?
I was being forced out Friday. But that is not my concern. What concern me is on Wednesday the Fed announce a half percent rate cut. Then came Thursday, Dow plunged more than 360 points. That is what really scare me. I start to wonder what will happen to US market next. The magic pill is not working now and the Doctor (Bernake) can't do anything until one month later. And he did said that he is not likely to do anything.
Anyway I am not holding any position now. I will probably prepare myself for some shorting action this coming week. Will check T3B Forum for more shorting ideas.
Someone in CNA forum asked did T3B factor in the News into their software. In fact one of the reason why I sign up T3B is hearing Keane shared about how the big boys use News to play the market. I cannot agree with him more because I was once in such practice.
Some years back I was working in a listed company. Business was bad because they are in a very traditional business with little growth potential. The chairman is a uneducated but very shrewd and streetwise man. What happen is he actually got some technologies from oversea. But it is certain not those state of the art kind of technology. In fact it is something that is already in the the market.
He then got a few of us in to do business development. I was very puzzle that he actually employed us to market those kind of products. Right after that he engage a PR company and spended some 100k to blast it out. During my 3 month stay with that company I actually attended many of these press release and product launch. Although it did not make headline, but every newspaper have some coverage about this traditional company venturing into technologies.
There and then I did not understand why they spend so much on such ordinary technology. 3 month later I left the company. After less than a year, non of my colleage was there and without long that product died of it own.
But guess what. Their share price shot up. Looking at the chart now I realised that anyone who bought their shares based on News has actually got in at all time high price. And if I am a executive in that company, I would have buy in before the News at low price, sell off when price peaked right after the News.
My conclusion is very often than not, News is what the big boy wants you to listen. Basing on News to invest are basically falling into thier trap.
Anyway I am not holding any position now. I will probably prepare myself for some shorting action this coming week. Will check T3B Forum for more shorting ideas.
Someone in CNA forum asked did T3B factor in the News into their software. In fact one of the reason why I sign up T3B is hearing Keane shared about how the big boys use News to play the market. I cannot agree with him more because I was once in such practice.
Some years back I was working in a listed company. Business was bad because they are in a very traditional business with little growth potential. The chairman is a uneducated but very shrewd and streetwise man. What happen is he actually got some technologies from oversea. But it is certain not those state of the art kind of technology. In fact it is something that is already in the the market.
He then got a few of us in to do business development. I was very puzzle that he actually employed us to market those kind of products. Right after that he engage a PR company and spended some 100k to blast it out. During my 3 month stay with that company I actually attended many of these press release and product launch. Although it did not make headline, but every newspaper have some coverage about this traditional company venturing into technologies.
There and then I did not understand why they spend so much on such ordinary technology. 3 month later I left the company. After less than a year, non of my colleage was there and without long that product died of it own.
But guess what. Their share price shot up. Looking at the chart now I realised that anyone who bought their shares based on News has actually got in at all time high price. And if I am a executive in that company, I would have buy in before the News at low price, sell off when price peaked right after the News.
My conclusion is very often than not, News is what the big boy wants you to listen. Basing on News to invest are basically falling into thier trap.
Friday, November 2, 2007
FORCED OUT !!!
What's up man....I kena FORCED OUT :(!!!
And this is my first loss using T3B. For the record it is $200. Anyway, I take it that this is a good chance to practice cut loss. The previous 2 round I only managed to practice cut profits.
Donald who bought the same counter as me was being forced out as well. But Lucas UOB-Kayhian is still in play. My mom's Cosco is still in play.
Looking at those S2 (Shorting counter) did not find anything interesting. And strangely Creative moved up. The rest of the Shorting counter did not thumble down as well. I am abit loss of direction. Anyway the trend is very dubious in either direction now. Probably seat out for a little while to observe until more define directions. I've learn from many senior and T3B mentor that the environment of a late bull is usually very volitile and confusing. Hope this is not the end yet. I still hope to learn more on trading the Bull. Although I heard that if you know how to short the bear you can earn more and earn faster.
Oh...Talking about T3B's support. I've never been to other courses, but I think T3B support has been excellent so far. I did chat with some mentor on the Wednesday clinic session. I must said they are very patience and professional. Also the forum community support is strong. I've learn and clarified much from these good support.
If any senior or mentor of T3B see my blog, I want to say thank you for your help and keep up the good work :)
And this is my first loss using T3B. For the record it is $200. Anyway, I take it that this is a good chance to practice cut loss. The previous 2 round I only managed to practice cut profits.
Donald who bought the same counter as me was being forced out as well. But Lucas UOB-Kayhian is still in play. My mom's Cosco is still in play.
Looking at those S2 (Shorting counter) did not find anything interesting. And strangely Creative moved up. The rest of the Shorting counter did not thumble down as well. I am abit loss of direction. Anyway the trend is very dubious in either direction now. Probably seat out for a little while to observe until more define directions. I've learn from many senior and T3B mentor that the environment of a late bull is usually very volitile and confusing. Hope this is not the end yet. I still hope to learn more on trading the Bull. Although I heard that if you know how to short the bear you can earn more and earn faster.
Oh...Talking about T3B's support. I've never been to other courses, but I think T3B support has been excellent so far. I did chat with some mentor on the Wednesday clinic session. I must said they are very patience and professional. Also the forum community support is strong. I've learn and clarified much from these good support.
If any senior or mentor of T3B see my blog, I want to say thank you for your help and keep up the good work :)
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